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Kazakhstan: Kazakhtelecom - Ex-dividend…what next?
High one-off yield. Kazakhtelecom (KZTK) will pay almost all proceeds from the sale of its 49% KCell stake in dividends. The dividend for FY11 and 1Q12 combined amounts to KZT19,888/share, or a 66.5% dividend yield (DY) based on KZTK’s closing price before the record date (16 May). The FY11 payout ratio on common stock was also high, at 85%, based on the core fixed-line earnings (30% of reported earnings) vs the 17% official company payout policy. Going forward, we believe KZTK should be able to maintain a 30% payout on common shares (we estimate a 5.8% DY for FY12), given its cash-generating ability. Full version |
17 May 2012
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Russia: RUSAL - Power prices to curtail capacity
Weak results: Lower price realisations, as well as oil and rouble pressures cut RUSAL’s EBITDA margin from 14% in 4Q11 to 8% in 1Q12. After an early year rally in aluminium, poor Chinese economic data and continued Eurozone uncertainty have dragged down prices, so we cut our 2012/13 LME price assumptions 5% and 2%, respectively. With Chinese producers continuing to operate at a loss in pursuit of job creation, high inventory levels capping medium-term upside and Chinese economic growth decelerating, it is tough for us to see aluminium prices rising in the near future. Full version |
17 May 2012
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South Africa: SA Apparel Retail Monthly
Following the release of Stats SA’s March retail sales data yesterday (16 May), we provide an update of the SA and international retail landscape Full version |
17 May 2012
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Czech Republic: Key takeaways from our recent Prague trip
We found the quarterly Czech National Bank (CNB) meeting with analysts, which took place on 11 May, to be more colourful than usual. The CNB presented its forecasts for the Czech economy (both baseline and alternative), which did not differ too much from previous scenarios. The CNB still expects flat 2012 growth (compared with our 1% estimate vs consensus of 0.3%). The CNB also expects year-end inflation to be c. 3.5%. Although this is the base-case scenario for the monetary policy committee (MPC), the minutes of the previous meeting seem to reveal disagreement among members of the committee on this scenario. Full version |
16 May 2012
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EMEA: Index watch - MSCI annual rebalancing: EMEA
The MSCI yesterday (15 May) announced the results of their annual rebalancing. Any changes will be implemented at the start of trade on 1 June 2012. Full version
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16 May 2012
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Russia: CTC Media Inc - Weekly audience share data
Weekly audience share data released: According to TNS, during the week of 30 April-6 May, the all-day (4+ demographic) audience shares of the CTC, Peretz and Domashny channels were 7.1%, 2.0% and 2.5%, respectively. The CTC channel’s four-week average audience share of 6.9% is significantly below the 7.7% delivered during the same period in 2011. The Peretz network’s four-week average share of 2.1% is above the 1.8% average achieved a year earlier. The Domashny network’s four-week average audience share of 2.8% is also above its average of 2.2% for the same period in 2011. Full version |
16 May 2012
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