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March 11, 2010
Russia: Cherkizovo – M&A to add 28% pork capacity
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Cherkizovo (CHE) is to wholly acquire two pork farms, both favourably located relative to its existing pork farms, for a $100mn EV, of which $20mn will be paid in cash and $80mn assumed as debt. The acquisitions will add 28% to CHE’s pork capacity and increase 2010-2013 EBITDA by 6.5% per year, on average, we estimate. We have increased our target price on CHE’s GDRs to $20.7 from $18.4 (+12.4%) and for local shares to $31.0 from $27.1 (+14.5%). The valuation gap between the GDRs and local shares has closed to zero, from a 6% GDR premium before, indicating better liquidity on the local exchanges. The selling party is NAPCO (controlled by CHE’s main shareholder, the Babaev family). We believe CHE has enough financial resources to complete the deal in 2H10 after its independent directors approve it in late June, based on the independent valuation CHE is currently seeking.
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March 11, 2010
Russia: MTS, Comstar, VimpelCom – FY09 results preview and restructuring
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Preview and expectations. Our 4Q09 results preview for MTS, Comstar and VimpelCom reflects the customary seasonality of the telecoms business: we do not expect anything extraordinary. We expect all three operators to issue fairly cautious guidance for 2010, as we do not think data from early 2010 suggest any sharp reversal of corporate or private spending.
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March 10, 2010
Russia: RenCap-NES Leading GDP Indicator - 1Q growth stellar, but 2Q looks murkier
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March 9, 2010
Economic and political update
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March 9, 2010
FSU oil and gas monitor
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Ukraine gas price in the spotlight. Newly elected Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, visited Moscow on Friday (5 Mar). Although no formal discussions on the gas price were initiated this time, Yanukovich was quoted by RBC Daily as saying that a price close to $168/mcm (the price paid by Belarus) would be fairer (compared with the previously reported 1Q10 price of $306/mcm). We think Russia is unlikely to agree to amend its terms of sale to Ukraine, as we believe Yanukovich's position on the issue is weak. First, our macro team believes that neither Ukraine's current account nor the hryvnia are currently under pressure, and that capital account issues are likely to be resolved when the IMF’s assistance programme for Ukraine resumes. Second, Russia has already granted material concessions to Ukraine under existing contracts (i.e. no fines for low offtake in 2009). Even in the unlikely scenario that the gas price is reduced, we expect no material negative impact on Gazprom's financials. We currently assume in our model that Gazprom is making no margin on the re-export of Central Asian gas to Ukraine. If the Ukraine price is reduced, we would expect Russia to negotiate better terms with Central Asian producers as well.
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| Отчеты |
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11 марта 2010
Группа Черкизово: покупка свинокомплексов увеличит мощности на 28%
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Группа Черкизово намерена приобрести в полную собственность два свинокомплекса, которые выгодно расположены относительно уже действующих предприятий компании.
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11 марта 2010
МТС, КОМСТАР-ОТС, ВымпелКом: прогноз результатов за 2009 г. и реструктуризация
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Наши прогнозы в отношении результатов деятельности МТС, КОМСТАР-ОТС и ВымпелКома за четвертый квартал прошлого года отражают традиционные сезонные тенденции в отрасли и не предполагают особых сюрпризов.
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10 марта 2010
Опережающий индикатор ВВП РенКап-РЭШ: перспективы второго квартала туманны
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В настоящем отчете мы представляем финальную оценку роста реального ВВП в первом квартале 2010 г. и вторую версию прогноза для второго квартала 2010 г.
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9 марта 2010
AFI Development: новости компании
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AFI Development продолжает строительство торгово-развлекательных центров Mall of Russia и «Тверская Застава». Сможет ли девелопер выйти на собственный ориентировочный уровень ставок аренды, пока сказать трудно.
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9 марта 2010
Российские банки в январе: избыток ликвидности в действии
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Банк России опубликовал балансы отдельных кредитных организаций по РСБУ по состоянию на первое февраля. В рамках настоящего отчета мы анализируем основные финансовые тенденции в российской банковской системе, а также наиболее важные события прошедших месяцев.
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| Обзор рынка долговых обязательств |
9 марта, 2010
Российские банки в январе: избыток ликвидности в действии
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Банк России опубликовал балансы отдельных кредитных организаций по РСБУ по состоянию на первое февраля. В рамках настоящего отчета мы анализируем основные финансовые тенденции в российской банковской системе, а также наиболее важные события прошедших месяцев.
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Take the chance to get to read more about the Renaissance Capital team of Analysts. Click on any of the names on this page to see a biography along with published research reports and research articles.
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