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South African Renaissance: SA a Top 10 global risk?...Not   January 17, 2017
Eurasia Group (a political risk consultancy) has included South Africa on its influential list of the 10 biggest global risks for 2017. We think thats a mistake. Yes, the transition beyond Zuma may be volatile, unemployment is rife, growth-supportive reforms are lacking and SA may get downgraded to junk (S&P seems to be setting the table for this in 4Q) but none of this should result in a political or economic crisis in 2017. A Top 10 global risk on a 10-year view perhaps, but in our view, SA is probably among the emerging markets that is least at risk of self-made, Fed or geopolitical contagion risk in 2017. Click here to view
Frontier and emerging markets: Echoes and mirrors   November 11, 2016
In the years after the 1929 crash, Keynesian spending, protectionism and competitive currency devaluations, replaced the classical economics consensus of previous generations. After the 1973 crash, it took nearly a decade for a new breed of politics to get established that would return neo-liberalism to the ascendancy. It has again taken nearly a decade since the 2007 crash began for politicians in the US, UK and Canada to win power with policies that echo those of the 1930s and are a mirror image of the 1980s... Click here to view
Renaissance Recommends   October 21, 2016
Egypt on the cusp of being investable, a Russian deflation trade, confidence in the Kenyan shilling post our East Africa conference, Naspers undervaluation, Tatnefts relative strength all should be viable themes even with the looming Fed hike. Heres a summary of our recent research that this Head of Research considers you should read and act on. Click here to view
Global: The Focal Point - Are we caught in a (middle income) trap?   September 12, 2016
We were doing some number crunching over the summer and were disheartened to find that a majority of the countries in MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) have failed to show any economic convergence with the US over the best part of a decade, going back to 2007; and that during this period, eight of them had failed to grow their dollar GDP per capita at all. Wealthy EMs were more likely to lag. Using more than five-decades worth of Big Data, we examine which countries are most vulnerable to the middle income trap, and which have a good chance of escaping. Click here to view
Russia: Magnit Capital Markets Day - Feedback from Day 2   July 29, 2016
Automated logistics in greenhouses Click here to view