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South African Renaissance: SA a Top 10 global risk?...Not
January 17, 2017
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Eurasia Group (a political risk consultancy) has included South Africa on its influential list of the 10 biggest global risks for 2017. We think that’s a mistake. Yes, the transition beyond Zuma may be volatile, unemployment is rife, growth-supportive reforms are lacking and SA may get downgraded to junk (S&P seems to be setting the table for this in 4Q) – but none of this should result in a political or economic crisis in 2017. A Top 10 global risk on a 10-year view perhaps, but in our view, SA is probably among the emerging markets that is least at risk of self-made, Fed or geopolitical contagion risk in 2017. Click here to view
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Renaissance Recommends
October 21, 2016
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Egypt on the cusp of being investable, a Russian deflation trade, confidence in the Kenyan shilling post our East Africa conference, Naspers undervaluation, Tatneft’s relative strength – all should be viable themes even with the looming Fed hike. Here’s a summary of our recent research that this Head of Research considers you should read … and act on. Click here to view
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Global: The Focal Point - Are we caught in a (middle income) trap?
September 12, 2016
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We were doing some number crunching over the summer and were disheartened to find that a majority of the countries in MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) have failed to show any economic convergence with the US over the best part of a decade, going back to 2007; and that during this period, eight of them had failed to grow their dollar GDP per capita at all. Wealthy EMs were more likely to lag. Using more than five-decade’s worth of Big Data, we examine which countries are most vulnerable to the middle income trap, and which have a good chance of escaping. Click here to view
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Renaissance Recommends: Research you should take on holiday
July 14, 2016
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In this video, Head of Research Mike Harris highlights what he believes is the best recent research from Renaissance Capital’s 37 EEMEA and frontier analysts, economists and strategists based throughout the region. Click here to view
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