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South African Renaissance: SA a Top 10 global risk?...Not
January 17, 2017
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Eurasia Group (a political risk consultancy) has included South Africa on its influential list of the 10 biggest global risks for 2017. We think that’s a mistake. Yes, the transition beyond Zuma may be volatile, unemployment is rife, growth-supportive reforms are lacking and SA may get downgraded to junk (S&P seems to be setting the table for this in 4Q) – but none of this should result in a political or economic crisis in 2017. A Top 10 global risk on a 10-year view perhaps, but in our view, SA is probably among the emerging markets that is least at risk of self-made, Fed or geopolitical contagion risk in 2017. Click here to view
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Frontier and emerging markets: Echoes and mirrors
November 11, 2016
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In the years after the 1929 crash, Keynesian spending, protectionism and competitive currency devaluations, replaced the classical economics consensus of previous generations. After the 1973 crash, it took nearly a decade for a new breed of politics to get established that would return neo-liberalism to the ascendancy. It has again taken nearly a decade since the 2007 crash began for politicians in the US, UK and Canada to win power with policies that echo those of the 1930s and are a mirror image of the 1980s... Click here to view
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Renaissance Recommends
October 21, 2016
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Egypt on the cusp of being investable, a Russian deflation trade, confidence in the Kenyan shilling post our East Africa conference, Naspers undervaluation, Tatneft’s relative strength – all should be viable themes even with the looming Fed hike. Here’s a summary of our recent research that this Head of Research considers you should read … and act on. Click here to view
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Global: The Focal Point - Are we caught in a (middle income) trap?
September 12, 2016
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We were doing some number crunching over the summer and were disheartened to find that a majority of the countries in MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) have failed to show any economic convergence with the US over the best part of a decade, going back to 2007; and that during this period, eight of them had failed to grow their dollar GDP per capita at all. Wealthy EMs were more likely to lag. Using more than five-decade’s worth of Big Data, we examine which countries are most vulnerable to the middle income trap, and which have a good chance of escaping. Click here to view
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Russia: Magnit – Capital Markets Day - Feedback from Day 2
July 29, 2016
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Automated logistics in greenhouses Click here to view
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