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Global: The Focal Point - Are we caught in a (middle income) trap?

September 12, 2016
We were doing some number crunching over the summer and were disheartened to find that a majority of the countries in MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) have failed to show any economic convergence with the US over the best part of a decade, going back to 2007; and that during this period, eight of them had failed to grow their dollar GDP per capita at all. Wealthy EMs were more likely to lag. Using more than five-decades worth of Big Data, we examine which countries are most vulnerable to the middle income trap, and which have a good chance of escaping.

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