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South African Renaissance: SA a Top 10 global risk?...Not

January 17, 2017
Eurasia Group (a political risk consultancy) has included South Africa on its influential list of the 10 biggest global risks for 2017. We think thats a mistake. Yes, the transition beyond Zuma may be volatile, unemployment is rife, growth-supportive reforms are lacking and SA may get downgraded to junk (S&P seems to be setting the table for this in 4Q) but none of this should result in a political or economic crisis in 2017. A Top 10 global risk on a 10-year view perhaps, but in our view, SA is probably among the emerging markets that is least at risk of self-made, Fed or geopolitical contagion risk in 2017.

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